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Lastman the early favorite for mayor Poll shows Hall trailing but voters taking a big interest; By John Spears TORONTO STAR. Toronto Star. Toronto, Ont.: Sep 6, 1997. pg. A.4
Mel Lastman holds a huge lead over Barbara Hall in the race to be first mayor of the new, unified city of Toronto, a Toronto Star poll shows.
Fifty-four per cent of Metro Toronto residents surveyed say Lastman would be the best mayor of the megacity.
Hall drew support from 25 per cent, while
19 per cent did not know who might be the best mayor, or gave no answer.
The poll, by Ekos Research Associates, is the first to be conducted since both Hall and Lastman formally declared their candidacy this summer.
The poll also reveals that this fall's election could grab public attention like no other in memory: A stunning 88 per cent of those surveyed in the Greater Toronto Area say they intend to vote.
A turnout that high is extremely unlikely. Typically, voter turnout is about 35 per cent for municipal
elections.
But the high voting intentions may point to extraordinary interest in this election. It features not only a unified Toronto, but also a new regime in which all cities and towns will have to shoulder big new responsibilities for social programs.
Elections for municipal councils will be held across Ontario on Monday, Nov. 10.
The poll for The Star was done between Aug. 25 and 29.
Lastman's early lead is a big one, Ekos president Frank Graves said in an interview. But he noted it's still more than two months until election day.
``It ain't much of a horse race now,'' Graves said. ``But it's too early to say it can't become one.''
He noted that the Ontario Liberal party had a lead almost as big as Lastman's shortly before the last provincial election, but saw it dissipate during the campaign.
And in 1994, Hall won the Toronto mayoralty, despite some polls showing her in third place.
Hall, who has been mayor of the City of Toronto for three years, announced her candidacy for mayor on June 26. Lastman, who has been mayor of North York since 1972, waited until Aug. 17 before he formally entered the race.
But so far, there's been little overt campaigning by either side.
According to the Ekos poll, Lastman leads among voters of both sexes, in all age and income brackets, and among both tenants and homeowners.
Although Hall trails in all categories, she is relatively strongest among women; those with incomes of less than $40,000; voters aged 35 or less; and renters.
Unfortunately for her, Graves said, traditional voting patterns show these groups are among the least likely to cast ballots on election day.
Hall still has time to turn the campaign around, he said, but she needs to get noticed.
`She's going to have to take some dramatic steps to shake things up.''
In fact, Hall issued a release yesterday challenging Lastman to a series of debates ``on his turf, and in every part of our new city.''
Sixteen organizations already have offered to hold either debates or all-candidates meetings for the mayor's race, she said.
Thirteen candidates are running for mayor in addition to Hall and Lastman.
Some have been nominated since the Ekos poll. Only two drew as much as 1 per cent support: lawyer Munyonzwe Hamalengwa and street musician Ben Kerr.
Hall and Lastman are the only two of the 15 who are currently sitting on a council, and the only
two ever elected mayor of a Metro municipality.
Ekos surveyed 1,216 adults across the Greater Toronto Area by telephone. Of that number, 501 were residents of Metro Toronto; the other 715 live in the suburban GTA. The results of questions asked of all GTA residents are accurate to within plus or minus 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
For questions asked only within Metro Toronto, the margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. Within the 905 area, the margin of error is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
Voting intentions are consistent across the GTA, although it's questionable whether all 88 per cent who say they plan to vote will follow through.
Voter turnout in Metro Toronto in the most recent municipal elections, held in 1994, ranged from 30 per cent of eligible voters in North York to 38 per cent in the City of York.
Outside Metro, turnout ranged from 24 per cent in Mississauga to 45 per cent in Vaughan.
On the other hand, a lively race for mayor can pull more voters into polling stations. In the City of Toronto in 1980, for instance, the left-versus-right battle between John Sewell and Art Eggleton pushed voter turnout to 45 per cent.
This fall's election features more than just a race for the mayor and council of a new city. It has a heightened significance throughout the GTA.
The campaign takes place as plans are being laid to tie Toronto and the suburban GTA more closely together.
GTA municipalities will have to pay more of the cost of social housing and other social programs, as the provincial government rewrites the rules of who does what.
At the same time, the province has said it will ``pool'' costs of social services across the GTA. That means property tax revenue from the outer GTA will be used, for the first time, to support social programs in the new city of Toronto.
That in turn means suburban residents may take a greater interest in how Toronto runs its affairs - and may demand a voice in how their money is being spent.
In addition, a new body to co- ordinate services such as public transit and garbage disposal across the GTA is likely to start up during the coming term.
Councils elected across the GTA will choose the members of this body, to be called the Greater Toronto Services Board. Its responsibilities haven't been fully mapped out.
Because of the special nature of the Toronto election, and because of the new links being forged between Toronto and the outer GTA, Ekos asked residents of the 905 area code zone who they'd like to see as mayor of the megacity.
Although these people won't have a vote for the Toronto mayor, Lastman is clearly the choice of 905 residents. Fifty- two per cent said Lastman would make the best mayor of the new Toronto,
while only 16 per cent picked Hall.
Lastman's support in the 905 area comes despite the fact he's shown little interest in the GTA's outer suburbs. He seldom attends the regular meetings of GTA mayors.
And in a rare appearance at a mayors' meeting in Mississauga last month, he bluntly told the suburban mayors: ``Without Toronto, you don't exist.''
An indignant Mississauga Mayor Hazel McCallion challenged him to a debate on that one. It hasn't yet been arranged.
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